Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.043779 0.049582 0.056040 0.063794 0.072890 0.083273 0.096093
2025-12-28 0.035425 0.042745 0.051554 0.063044 0.077799 0.096333 0.121734
2026-01-04 0.030018 0.038276 0.048919 0.063890 0.084810 0.113633 0.157481
2026-01-11 0.025468 0.034102 0.045939 0.063787 0.090804 0.131537 0.200417
2026-01-18 0.021843 0.030573 0.043240 0.063628 0.096961 0.151923 0.255559
2026-01-25 0.018507 0.026923 0.039759 0.061665 0.100116 0.169127 0.313969
2026-02-01 0.015600 0.023467 0.036000 0.058540 0.100755 0.182797 0.373893
2026-02-08 0.013774 0.021429 0.034180 0.058387 0.106940 0.209820 0.479324
2026-02-15 0.012293 0.019736 0.032659 0.058502 0.113930 0.242057 0.621691
2026-02-22 0.011142 0.018434 0.031614 0.059350 0.122983 0.283921 0.828525
2026-03-01 0.010133 0.017235 0.030563 0.059995 0.132062 0.331391 1.105950
2026-03-08 0.009063 0.015774 0.028771 0.058674 0.136159 0.368291 1.394598
2026-03-15 0.007819 0.013849 0.025809 0.054210 0.131133 0.376820 1.586416
2026-03-22 0.007162 0.012978 0.024887 0.054393 0.139285 0.435807 2.144038
2026-03-29 0.006678 0.012391 0.024476 0.055785 0.151888 0.522449 3.087193
2026-04-05 0.006185 0.011717 0.023768 0.056273 0.162193 0.610937 4.350326
2026-04-12 0.005738 0.011086 0.023059 0.056618 0.172509 0.712028 6.190593
2026-04-19 0.005248 0.010298 0.021860 0.055303 0.176501 0.788100 8.220859
2026-04-26 0.004756 0.009451 0.020394 0.052870 0.175362 0.837212 10.283697
2026-05-03 0.004448 0.008983 0.019800 0.052989 0.184957 0.967172 15.041902
2026-05-10 0.004180 0.008575 0.019299 0.053304 0.195874 1.125938 22.804432
2026-05-17 0.003964 0.008264 0.019003 0.054242 0.210525 1.342791 37.285417
2026-05-24 0.003759 0.007956 0.018666 0.054973 0.224964 1.592438 62.560534